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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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the malaria deaths two thirds were to children under 5, whereas two thirds of accidents were to people 15 to 45 years of age. Malaria deaths affected boy and girl babies equally; accidents resulted in deaths of three males for each female. If a choice is being made between investment in spraying and investment in safety measures, one of the considerations is the population effect: the difference that it makes for future numbers of people and the rate of growth.
The policy options for birth rates are likely to be greater than for death rates. Should birth control information be directed to young couples or to those who have already had some children? What is the effect of reducing the birth rate of women around age 20 as against reducing the rate of those around 40? The demographic considerations with which this paper will be concerned take their place alongside psychological, economic, cultural, and other considerations treated elsewhere in this volume.
Without a Model No Linkages
We have now dealt with sets of death rates specific to each age, and birth rates specific to each age of mother. Such a set of age-specific rates of birth and death, a regime of fertility and mortality, implies an ultimate rate of increase if it continues long enough, and in conjunction with the initial number of individuals of each age and sex, it implies an immediate rate of increase.
To ask about linkages in a simple if slightly abstract way: What is the effect on r (the ultimate rate of increase of a population) of a change in one part of the regime—say the death rate 5MX of women aged x tox + 4 at last birthday?
Suppose we try without a model, and think of the immediate effect on the crude death rate, as obtained from national vital statistics, of a mortality decline. To be specific, what is the effect on the overall death rate of one female death avoided at age 0 to 4 at last birthday as against one death avoided at age 55 to 59? The answer can only be that the effects are identical; with one death fewer at one age the crude death rate goes down exactly as much as with one death fewer at any other age. What is true for one death is true for ten thousand; the crude death rate is in the short run entirely insensitive to the ages at which those deaths occur, whether before, during, or long after the time of reproduction, whether of males or of females.
Yet this answer is as demographically superficial as it is numerically correct. One, or a million, lives saved on a particular occasion is less the subject of demography than are relatively durable changes in death rates. If the life or lives saved may be supposed the result of a durable improvement in medical technique, then we want to know the effect on populations of theage by 2.42 years in comparison with Sweden 1800—evidently the survivorship of Honduras was espe-ion Change on the Attainment of Educa-bout 20 percent. For the less developedHilton Salhanick has observed that some women practicing the rhythm method will break or lose their thermometers at the critical juncture in theirright, therefore alwayshas some c